JCP 2007 Vol.2(1): 33-43 ISSN: 1796-203X
doi: 10.4304/jcp.2.1.33-43
doi: 10.4304/jcp.2.1.33-43
Bayesian Networks and Evidence Theory to Model Complex Systems Reliability
Ch. SIMON, Ph. WEBER, E. LEVRAT
1Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy (CRAN - UMR 7039), Nancy University, CNRS,
2 Rue Jean Lamour, 54509 Vandoeuvre, France
Abstract—This paper deals with the use of Bayesian Networks to compute system reliability of complex systems under epistemic uncertainty. In the context of incompleteness of reliability data and inconsistencies between the reliability model and the system modeled, the evidence theory is more suitable to manage this epistemic uncertainty. We propose to adapt the Bayesian Network model of reliability in order to integrate the evidence theory and then to produce an Evidential Network. Three examples are proposed to observe the propagation mechanism of the uncertainty through the network and its influence on the system reliability.
Index Terms—Reliability, Epistemic Uncertainty, Dempster Shafer Theory, Bayesian Networks, Evidential Networks
Abstract—This paper deals with the use of Bayesian Networks to compute system reliability of complex systems under epistemic uncertainty. In the context of incompleteness of reliability data and inconsistencies between the reliability model and the system modeled, the evidence theory is more suitable to manage this epistemic uncertainty. We propose to adapt the Bayesian Network model of reliability in order to integrate the evidence theory and then to produce an Evidential Network. Three examples are proposed to observe the propagation mechanism of the uncertainty through the network and its influence on the system reliability.
Index Terms—Reliability, Epistemic Uncertainty, Dempster Shafer Theory, Bayesian Networks, Evidential Networks
Cite: Ch. SIMON, Ph. WEBER, E. LEVRAT, "Bayesian Networks and Evidence Theory to Model Complex Systems Reliability," Journal of Computers vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 33-43, 2007.
General Information
ISSN: 1796-203X
Abbreviated Title: J.Comput.
Frequency: Bimonthly
Abbreviated Title: J.Comput.
Frequency: Bimonthly
Editor-in-Chief: Prof. Liansheng Tan
Executive Editor: Ms. Nina Lee
Abstracting/ Indexing: DBLP, EBSCO, ProQuest, INSPEC, ULRICH's Periodicals Directory, WorldCat,etc
E-mail: jcp@iap.org
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